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Home Investing

Leon Wilfan On 2019 Recession Probabilities

Should You Buy The Dip Or Wait For Signs Of Recovery?

Kathleen Peddicord by Kathleen Peddicord
Jun 12, 2019
in Investing
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In May, the S&P 500 declined by almost 7%.

That is remarkable, considering it had one of the best starts of the year in decades.

I can’t help but wonder if this is a buy-the-dip opportunity.

However, with the ongoing trade war and rumors of recession, it’s not a clear-cut choice.

Fortunately, I can talk these things over with an expert I trust.

Leon Wilfan, Chief Investment Strategist for our new Lahardan Financial group, is not your usual Wall Street character. He’s a self-made, self-proven investor who has seen many bull and bear markets over his prosperous investing career.

Here’s what he said about today’s situation:

Kathleen: Leon, I saw the markets decline in May and was wondering if this is the right time to invest or the start of a new recession?

Leon: Your question reminds me of Warren Buffet’s famous quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Of course, you should be patient as well and always wait for the market to turn. “Don’t try to catch a falling knife,” is another famous investment quote to keep in mind.

That said, I do feel like the market is turning positive again and that the recession fears are overblown.

Kathleen: I remember you saying that a trade deal between China and the United States will happen. Do you still believe that is the case?

Leon: Yes, I believe both sides need a deal.

The Chinese economy has been weak, and Xi recognizes that sanctions are not helping the situation. Right now, Trump still has some negotiation leverage and can play hardball, but, as the U.S. economy weakens a bit, there’s going to be pressure on him as well to get some deal done. I think this could happen by the end of the summer.

Kathleen: This president is different from others. He sticks to his word, and he’s saying that tariffs are great for the economy.

Leon: Politicians say what their supporters need to hear, and Trump is no different.

Tariffs are never great for the economy. If you look at the past century, anytime any country imposed tariffs on another, both economies suffered. Presidents Hoover, Reagan, and Bush learned that lesson the hard way, and now Trump is doing the same.

Besides, anyone who thinks that current tariffs are great should talk to Midwest farmers and ask them how they feel about the situation.

These farmers are among those who voted Trump into office. If he wants them to support him in the 2020 election, he needs to appease them with more than just encouraging words… and soon.

Kathleen: Why then did Trump resort to tariffs in the first place?

Leon: If you’re the president of the United States, you can’t pass legislation by yourself, you can’t go to war by yourself, so what can you do to enforce your will on other countries? You can impose tariffs.

It’s a tool the president has found that he can use unilaterally to create leverage for his policies. I expect he’ll continue using it as a threat throughout his presidency and that the stock market will continue to react to each new tariff situation violently.

Kathleen: How should I invest given the stock market volatility?

Leon: During Trump’s presidency, the stock market has split into “haves” and “have nots.”

The haves are companies with recurring revenue streams generating a lot of cash flow.

The have-nots are your typical cyclical companies, such as automotive and basic materials stocks.

You want to be buying the haves, because they are less vulnerable to tariff wars and the global economic cycle.

As you know, I recommend this type of stock in the latest issue of my True Retirement Wealth, and it shot up by over 10% in only four days.

Kathleen: Great advice as usual, Leon.

Leon: My pleasure.

Kathleen Peddicord

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Kathleen Peddicord

Kathleen Peddicord

Kathleen Peddicord has covered the live, retire, and do business overseas beat for more than 30 years and is considered the world's foremost authority on these subjects. She has traveled to more than 75 countries, invested in real estate in 21, established businesses in 7, renovated historic properties in 6, and educated her children in 4.

Kathleen has moved children, staff, enterprises, household goods, and pets across three continents, from the East Coast of the United States to Waterford, Ireland... then to Paris, France... next to Panama City, where she has based her Live and Invest Overseas business. Most recently, Kathleen and her husband Lief Simon are dividing their time between Panama and Paris.

Kathleen was a partner with Agora Publishing’s International Living group for 23 years. In that capacity, she opened her first office overseas, in Waterford, Ireland, where she managed a staff of up to 30 employees for more than 10 years. Kathleen also opened, staffed, and operated International Living publishing and real estate marketing offices in Panama City, Panama; Granada, Nicaragua; Roatan, Honduras; San Miguel de Allende, Mexico; Quito, Ecuador; and Paris, France.

Kathleen moved on from her role with Agora in 2007 and launched her Live and Invest Overseas group in 2008. In the years since, she has built Live and Invest Overseas into a successful, recognized, and respected multi-million-dollar business that employs a staff of 35 in Panama City and dozens of writers and other resources around the world.

Kathleen has been quoted by The New York Times, Money magazine, MSNBC, Yahoo Finance, the AARP, and beyond. She has appeared often on radio and television (including Bloomberg and CNBC) and speaks regularly on topics to do with living, retiring, investing, and doing business around the world.

In addition to her own daily e-letter, the Overseas Opportunity Letter, with a circulation of more than 300,000 readers, Kathleen writes regularly for U.S. News & World Report and Forbes.

Her newest book, "How to Retire Overseas: Everything You Need to Know to Live Well (for Less) Abroad," published by Penguin Random House, is the culmination of decades of personal experience living and investing around the world.

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